Arbeitspapier / Forschungsbericht | Open Access

From prejudice to racial profiling and back. A naἴve intuitive statistician's curse

Autor(en)
Förster, Manuel 0000-0003-4503-352X ; Karos, Dominik
Verlag
Center for Mathematical Economics 
ISSN
0931-6558
URN
urn:nbn:de:0070-pub-29521893
URL
https://pub.uni-bielefeld.de/record/2952189

Weitere Details

Sprache
englisch
Darstellungsform
Text
Serie
Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers
Band
644
Seitenzahl
26
Schlagwörter
Biased inference , discrimination , naἴve intuitive statistics , police search , racial profiling
Link zum Volltext (intern)
https://pub.uni-bielefeld.de/record/2952189
DDC
310

A designer conducts random searches to detect criminals, and may condition the
search probability on individuals' appearance. She updates her belief about the
distribution of criminals across appearances using her search results, but incorrectly
takes her sample distribution for the population distribution. In equilibrium she
employs optimal search probabilities given her belief, and her belief is consistent
with her findings. We show that she will be discriminating an appearance if and only
if she overestimates the probability of this appearance's being criminal. Moreover,
in a linear model, tightening her budget will worsen the situation of those most
discriminated against.

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